Analysis and Advisory Services on the Canadian Air Sector Recovery

The Air Sector Analysis and Outlook team in the Transportation and Economic (TEA) directorate of Transport Canada requires analysis and advisory services to support its air sector recovery monitoring and analysis work. To do this, TEA is looking for a professional consulting firm who regularly produces air passenger forecasts in the Canadian context and has been involved in developing air passenger traffic recovery scenarios to advise Transport Canada on air sector recovery issues, mainly to develop short- to medium-term recovery scenarios as well as air sector analytical issues as described below, from the date of contract award until March 31, 2024, with two (2) option years.

Specific tasks include, but are not limited to: a. Develop air passenger recovery scenarios, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, nationally and broken down by sector (domestic, transborder, and other international), b. views on Canadian origin versus foreign origin air passenger traffic recovery for the other international sector, c. provide details on assumptions used for the development of air passenger recovery scenarios, and d. comment on any risks that are embedded in the forecast.

Supplementary optional ad-hoc analysis and advisory services may include: a. Additional recovery scenario updates, b. Information and insights on key issues that may impact the recovery, such as changes in travel behaviour, how airlines adjust capacity (including fleet management) to demand, changes in airline and airport strategies, as well as changes in airfares, airline costs, competition, and connectivity.