Quantitative Bowtie Risk Analysis

ADVANCE CONTRACT AWARD NOTICE (ACAN) Definition An ACAN is a public notice indicating to the supplier community that a department or agency intends to award a contract for goods, services or construction to a pre-identified supplier, thereby allowing other suppliers to signal their interest in bidding, by submitting a statement of capabilities. If no supplier submits a statement of capabilities that meets the requirements set out in the ACAN, on or before the closing date stated in the ACAN, the contracting officer may then proceed with the award to the pre-identified supplier. Definition of Requirements TITLE Quantitative Bowtie Risk Analysis BACKGROUND Under the Cumulative Effects program, the NRCan/Canadian Forest Service (CFS) has a project to develop and refine an ISO31000 Risk Management Framework and its ISO31010 Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool (BRAT) to assess risks of natural resource development activities to ecosystem integrity and sustainability. The BRAT was developped to assess risk of engineering system failure, but a few groups around the world are beginning to adopt it to risk of ecosystem management failure. A successful refinement, testing and application of the BRAT to a quantitative assessment of natural resource development activity has not previously been done. A pilot project was completed to adopt the BRAT to a qualitative assessment of a sustainable forest management system in Ontario, but the next step is to develop a quantitative model in which the effectiveness of the management system to prevent an undesirable outcome will be quantified. The quantitative BRAT requires a probabilistic modeling approach using available data, information, and expert opinion through a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) analytical pathway. This highly specialized expertise is required to move our project into a quantitative model and to advance our application of the BRAT to ecosystem cumulative effects assessment. The CFS will provide assessment specifications and sources of data and/or information required for the study, and the Contractor will apply his techniques to develop the quantitative BRAT. The BRAT will be applied to our existing pilot study on the sustainable forest management system in Ontario. Deliverables on the contract will including progress stages of information and data compilation, meta-analysis, quantitative BRAT framework development, and application of the quantitative BRAT. OBJECTIVE A quantitative risk analysis of a sustainable forest management system in Ontario based on the ISO31010 Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool and the application of Bayesian Belief Network models to make probabilistic determinations of risk. Criteria for Assessment of the Statement of Capabilities Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a statement of capabilities that they meet the following requirements:

Must have demonstrable experience developing a quantitative risk analysis of a sustainable forest management system in Ontario based on the ISO31010 Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool and the application of Bayesian Belief Network models to make probabilistic determinations of risk. Must have extensive knowledge of key model assumptions of the Bowtie Risk assessment and associated Bayesian Belief Network models including sources and their validity and elements of uncertainty. Must have experience communicating those key model assumptions (including sources and their validity/elements of uncertainty).

Trade Agreements Trade Agreements are not applicable. Justification for the Pre-Identified Supplier We intend to deal directly with the supplier mentioned in section 10 below as, it is the only known supplier that meets the mandatory criteria set out in section 3 above. Should Canada receive a statement of capabilities from a supplier that contains sufficient information to indicate that it meets the requirements set forth in this ACAN, a competitive process will be triggered with a technical and financial evaluation methodology of the bids proposed by the potential bidders. Exception to the Government Contracts Regulations and applicable trade agreements In accordance with the Government Contract Regulations (GCR) exception, Part 1, Section 6, (d) only one person or firm is capable of performing the contract. The suggested supplier is the only person in North America, arguably in the world, who has adopted, applied, tested and published (in a graduate thesis) a quantitative BRAT to assess risks to an identified ecosystem through the BBN analytical pathway. This highly specialized expertise is required to move our project into a quantitative model and to advance our application of the BRAT to ecosystem cumulative effects assessment. Title to Intellectual Property Ownership of any Foreground Intellectual Property arising out of the proposed contract will vest in the Contractor. The Contractor shall supply to NRCan/CFS all data, analyses, reports and documents generated, and the Contractor shall grant to NRCan/CFS a non-exclusive, irrevocable, world-wide, free and royalty-free licence in perpetuity to use, modify, and make publically available such reports and documents for non-commercial governmental purposes. Contract Period From award of contract to March 31, 2018. Estimated Cost Estimated cost is $31,050 CAD + HST. Name and Address of the Proposed Contractor Mr. Jason Igras 2347 Buroak Drive London, ON, N6G 0L 519-902-3221 Suppliers’ right to submit a statement of capabilities Suppliers who consider themselves fully qualified and available to provide the services/goods described herein, may submit a Statement of Capabilities in writing, preferably by e-mail, to the contact person identified in this Notice on or before the closing date and time of this Notice. The Statement of Capabilities must clearly demonstrate how the supplier meets the advertised requirements. Closing Date June 23rd, 2017 at 2:00 P.M. Eastern Standard Time (EST). Contract Authority Lucie Lepage Natural Resources Canada Contracting Officer 580 Booth Street, room 5-D2-2 Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E4 Fax: 613-947-5477 E-mail: lucie.lepage@canada.ca