ACAN – Upgrade and recompile of The Informetrica Model - ACAN

ACAN – Upgrade and recompile of The Informetrica Model

1. Advance Contract Award Notice (ACAN)

An ACAN is a public notice indicating to the supplier community that a department or agency intends to award a contract for goods, services or construction to a pre-identified supplier, thereby allowing other suppliers to signal their interest in bidding, by submitting a statement of capabilities. If no supplier submits a statement of capabilities that meets the requirements set out in the ACAN, on or before the closing date stated in the ACAN, the contracting officer may then proceed with the award to the pre-identified supplier.

2. Definition of the requirement

The Department of the Environment has a requirement for upgrade the Informetrica TIM model to FORTRAN and C++. The work will involve the following:

Environment Canada recently acquired the intellectual property rights to Informetrica Limited’s econometric model (TIM) and its National and Provincial Population models. The three models are used on a standalone basis to produce macroeconomic forecasts that support key Departmental activities. The TIM model is also used as a macro model integrated with the E2020 energy model.

Currently, these models are implemented using Microsoft’s Visual Studio 6, and COMPAQ Visual FORTRAN 6, both of which are no longer supported. As Environment Canada has a need to modify the models, this requires that the models be re-written in software which is supported. To this end, Environment Canada requires the services of Informetrica Limited to implement the current production versions of TIM and the two population models using current supported software: Microsoft’s Visual Studio 2012, and Intel Composer XE 2013 (FORTRAN and C++). Implementing this propose will ensure the continued ability to enhance and modify the TIM modeling suite (i.e., TIM econometric model, and its National and Provincial Population models) to meet the evolving environment and energy-enviornment policy and regulatory agenda.

SCOPE OF WORK / DELIVERABLES The following tasks will be undertaken:

1. Re-compile and test each of the three models (The Informetrica Model, the national population model and the provincial population model). Model software will be modified if/as required.

2. Test the TIM model running under the E3MC model integrating software - InfRuntandem.

3. Re-compile and test re-implemented models on Environment Canada workstations.

4. Provide assistance to Environment Canada staff to perform the on-site tests of the fully integrated E3MC model.

5. Prepare and deliver a short (2-3 hours) course to Environment Canada staff on how to compile and link a new version of TIM with the new software. The contractor will also make available Course Notes for as reference material for future users.

6. To explore the impact of using alternative versions of Windows, the consultant will undertake model tests associated with work in tasks 1) and 2) using Windows 8, 64-bit professional edition and Windows XP, 32-bit professional edition. As part of this test, compatibility issues will be assessed, if any, they will be reported for these platforms.

The following deliverables will be provided

1. Re-compiled and fully working version of TIM model, national population model and provincial model based on the updated operating software. 2. A fully functional TIM model running under the E3MC model integrating software - InfRuntandem. 3. Assistance to Environment Canada staff to perform the on-site tests of the fully integrated E3MC model. 4. A course to Environment Canada staff on how to compile and link a new version of TIM with the new software. Course Notes for as reference material for future users. 5. Advice on implementing the new operating software using alternative versions of Windows - Windows 8, 64-bit professional edition and Windows XP, 32-bit professional edition.

3. Criteria for assessment of the Statement of Capabilities (Minimum Essential Requirements) Detail the criteria against which the statement of capabilities submitted by potential suppliers will be assessed. This will allow the contracting officer to have an adequate basis for evaluating a potential supplier's statement of capabilities. The pre-identified supplier must be evaluated on the same basis.

Any interested supplier must demonstrate by way of a statement of capabilities that it meets the following requirements:

? Experience 5 years experience in the past 10 years in software development for econometric model simulation systems and in writing software interface linking an econometric model simulation system to an technology-based behavioral energy supply and demand simulation system and in the application of Input/Output matrix techniques in economic modeling, energy models and immigrations flows; 5 years experience in the past 10 years in write and compiling equations for econometric model simulation system ; conducting at least 3 projects similar in size, scope and complexity;

? Knowledge and understanding of i) national and provincial econometric model simulation systems, ii) technology-based behavioral energy supply and demand simulation system, and iii)the equation structure of The Informetrica Model ; and the following software: MOSAIC, SIMSYS, VISUAL BASIC, FORTRAN, APL, PASCAL, BASIC on IBM, UNIVAC, BURROUGHS Mainframes, APPLE and IBM/PC, and VAX/VMS systems

4. Justification for the Pre-Identified Supplier

There are no alternative suppliers that have both the required expertise and knowledge to undertaken the writing and compilation of the Informetrica Limited’s econometric model (TIM) and its National and Provincial Population models. Based on our knowledge, and some 20-years of interactions with the TIM model, Mr. May is the only person that has the required programming knowledge and expertise concerning the programming languaging of the TIM modeling suite applications software the solution model that links the Informetrica macro model with an energy model being used by Environment Canada. As such, engaging the services of Mr. May is the most cost-effective course of action. Government Contracts Regulations.

Informetrica Limited, and in particular Keith May, was responsible for writing and implementing “The Informetrica Model” and the National and Provincial Population models that are used on a standalone basis to produce macroeconomic forecasts that support key Departmental activities and for developing of the TIM-E2020 interface and TIM solution model which is used as a macro model integrated with the E2020 energy model. These models were written and compiled using Microsoft’s Visual Studio 6, and COMPAQ Visual FORTRAN 6. As both versions of the software are no longer supported and Environment Canada has a need to modify the models, Informetrica is best positioned to rewrite and implement TIM and the two population models using current supported software: Microsoft’s Visual Studio 2012, and Intel Composer XE 2013 (FORTRAN and C++).

As Keith May was the individual who originally implemented “The Informetrica Model”, the National and Provincial Population models, the TIM-E2020 interface and the TIM solution model he is best positioned to write the models using the newer versions of software: Microsoft’s Visual Studio 2012, and Intel Composer XE 2013 (FORTRAN and C++).

Given the importance of these models to supporting Environment Canada activities such as analytical support to the sector-by-sector regulatory agenda, Canada’s Emissions Trends and the integrated energy, emissions and economy forecast, using an alternative consultant would results in excessive delays and could place at risk the timely delivery of thee key activities.

Proceeding with the contractor will ensure continued use of Environment Canada's E3MC model (e.g., Canada's Emissions Trends Report and impact analysis of key policy and regulatory initiatives). • The E3MC model is designed to run only with a macroeconomic forecast generated by TIM. • The E3MC interface model (i.e., the model that allows the ENERGY 2020 model to exchange files with the macroeconomic model) is designed to work only with TIM. • The E3MC model, when assessing policy impacts, can only generate a new equilibrium solution by iterating with TIM.

This proposal will ensure the capacity to modify the TIM modeling suite in response to the evolving policy and regulatory agenda. The proposal will also ensure that we have the capacity to "modernize" the TIM modeling suite, should financial constraints preclude us from contracting-out the acquisition of an alternative macroeconomic model and interface to the energy model. The software source code re-write and compilation, which must be undertaken, requires that the contract has expert knowledge of the manner in which the TIM model was developed and the inter-relationships of its equations across the modeling suite. If the software code re-write is not performed correctly, the model will not be able to generate the correct solutions. If this were to happen, then we would need to acquire a completely new model.

By undertaken this project, Environment Canada will have continued use of the TIM modeling suite and will have a safety-net should budget constraints preclude the acquisition of an completely new model.

5. Exception(s) The following exception(s) to the Government Contracts Regulations is (are) invoked for this procurement under subsection 6(d) -

"only one person is capable of performing the work".

6. Ownership of Intellectual Property Ownership of any Foreground Intellectual Property arising out of the proposed contract will vest in the Contractor.

The Contractor will grant to Canada a non-exclusive, perpetual, irrevocable, world-wide, fully-paid and royalty-free license to exercise all Intellectual Property Rights in the Foreground Information that vest in the Contractor, for any public purpose except Commercial Exploitation in Competition with the Contractor.

7. Period of the proposed contract or delivery date The proposed contract is for a period of contract award to December 31, 2013.

8. Cost estimate of the proposed contract The estimated value of the contract, including option(s), is $35,000.00 (GST/HST extra).

9. Name and address of the pre-identified supplier Informetrica Limited. 176 Bronson Avenue Ottawa, Ontario K1R 6H4

10. Suppliers' right to submit a statement of capabilities Suppliers who consider themselves fully qualified and available to provide the goods, services or construction services described in the ACAN may submit a statement of capabilities in writing to the contact person identified in this notice on or before the closing date of this notice. The statement of capabilities must clearly demonstrate how the supplier meets the advertised requirements.

11. Closing date for a submission of a statement of capabilities The closing date and time for accepting statements of capabilities is June 12, 2013 at 3:00 p.m. EST.

12. Inquiries and submission of statements of capabilities Inquiries and statements of capabilities are to be directed to: David Anderson Contracting Officer NCR Materiel Management and Contracting Corporate Services Branch Environment Canada 351 St. Joseph Blvd, Gatineau, QC K1A 0H3 Tel: 819.994.3876 Fax: 819.953.8235 E-Mail: david.anderson@ec.gc.ca