Developing quantitative methods and analytical tools for modelling Pacific Herring.

1.3 Objectives of the Requirement The contract will emphasize modifications to existing operating models for Pacific Herring to support simulation-evaluation of management procedures for Pacific Herring. Oral and written communication of quantitative approaches and results to both scientific and nontechnical audiences will be required. Stage 1: Projects 1-7

Update stock assessment model component of the mseRfinfish operating model to include in the most recent version of the integrated statistical catch age model. Develop approaches for integrating spawn-on-kelp fishery dynamics into the operating model. Evaluate the performance of management strategies against conservation and fishery objectives for West coast Vancouver Island Pacific Herring. Evaluate the performance of management strategies against conservation and fishery objectives for Strait of Georgia Pacific Herring. Provide thorough documentation of modelling approaches, including equations, assumptions, and data analyses, for scientific peer review process. Provide thorough documentation of modelling approaches, including equations, assumptions, and data analyses, for nontechnical audiences. Provide facilitation services for meetings between DFO and herring users.

Stage 2 (Optional work): Projects 8-11

Develop data-based and model-based quantitative approaches for integrating uncertainty in spatial and temporal dynamics of herring stocks, including linkages with management strategies. Evaluated the performance of management strategies against conservation and fishery objectives for Haida Gwaii Pacific Herring. Evaluated the performance of management strategies against conservation and fishery objectives for Prince Rupert Pacific Herring. Evaluated the performance of management strategies against conservation and fishery objectives for Central Coast Pacific Herring.1.4 Background, Assumptions and Specific Scope of the Requirement

Concerns over the number of years in which 3 of 5 BC herring stocks have experienced prolonged low stock abundance, with commercial fisheries closed up to 10-years, has prompted request(s) for performance evaluation of the management framework, and in particular, the herring harvest control rule (HCR). Recent work by Cleary, Cox and Schweigert (2010) uses simulation modelling to examine performance of HCRs for Pacific Herring management, indicates the current HCR used for herring management may prevent long-term declines in herring stocks but does not allow rebuilding of stocks that have been seriously depleted. However, this study did not consider stock structure uncertainty (spatial and temporal), temporal correlation of annual recruitments, changes in growth patterns, or changes in natural mortality that must be considered in the evaluation of management procedures for Pacific Herring.

Sustainable management of Canadian fisheries through the Sustainable Fisheries Framework (SFF) is a departmental priority. The SFF (DFO 2009) provides the basis for ensuring Canadian fisheries are conducted in a manner which support conservation and sustainable use includes 3 policies relevant for the provision of science advice for the management of B.C. herring stocks: 1) Decision Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach 2) Guidance for the Development of Rebuilding Plans 3) Policy on New Fisheries for Forage Species DFO work plan identifies the need to align provision of science advice and the management framework for Pacific Herring with the Precautionary Approach framework and Rebuilding plan guidelines. This includes: Review performance of the current harvest control rules for herring stocks. Identification of limit reference points, upper stock reference points, target reference points and reference removal rate. Requirement for measurable objectives (conservation and yield objectives)

A limit reference point (LRP) of 30% of the unfished spawning biomass (0.30SB0) is recommended for BC Pacific Herring stocks, approved through a peer-review process in February 2017 (DFO 2017). The Policy on New Fisheries for Forage Species includes the requirement for forage species to be managed in ways to minimize local depletion of population components and maintenance of full reproductive potential of forage species, including geographic population structure. Proposed work is intended to advance ecosystem approaches to the management of forage fisheries through the development of tools that can be used to enhance our understanding of the dynamics of exploited forage species. In moving towards ecosystem approaches to single species assessments, there is a need for a comprehensive understanding of factors that affect the distribution and abundance of fish and prey species, trophic structure, predator-prey dynamics, and species interdependencies. Improved understanding of these ecosystem considerations is necessary for an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries and marine management. This project requires scientific expertise in the fields of fisheries science, simulation modelling, development of tools for quantitative analysis of fisheries data, and management strategy evaluation. Also required is experience facilitating meetings with diverse fishery stakeholders and First Nations. The proposed project builds on previous work developing operating models for BC herring stocks, and links with feedback simulation tools developed for commercially-harvested fish stocks (see Kronlund et al. 2012). Contractor expertise must extend to knowledge of DFO SFF Policies and implications for harvest decision rules. Proficiencies with DFO data collection programs (fisheries, surveys) for BC Pacific Herring stocks and pelagic ecosystem surveys are required. Time frame for completion: It is the intent of DFO for the full extent of this contract to be carried out over a 2-year period. Short time lines for a number of stage-1 components of this project reflect the need for results to be considered by DFO Science in summer 2018 to support on-going collaborations with herring users through the management strategy evaluation process.